Episode 378
Hot Button Issues Bingo: Immigration, Brexit & Trump. Tariffs, China & Russia (oh my!)
EP 378 - Political scientist Anand Menon joins us this week to talk about the good, the bad and the downright ugly of the choices facing the UK in a rapidly changing world.
We discuss how we all need to redraw a mental map of the “Western Alliance” as a result of the Trump administration, how the UK government is walking a diplomatic tightrope between the US and the EU and why their positive drive for growth could get derailed by events outside of their control.
Anand brings evidence, rather than opinion and ideology to the table. Which helps navigate emotionally charged issues such as whether immigration is good for the economy, and why the net immigration numbers are set to fall (hint, it’s nothing to do with small boats).
We even managed to have a sensible conversation about Brexit, the pros, the cons, the winners and the losers who are likely to pay the highest price for it. It might not be who you think.
As Anand says, “people tell us, that the reason that they listen to us is that they don’t know what we are going to say”
*For Apple Podcast chapters, access them from the menu in the bottom right corner of your player*
Spotify Video Chapters:
00:00 BWB with Anand Menon
02:21 Meet Anand
03:14 Brexit's Psychological and Political Impact
03:32 Trump's Influence on Global Politics
09:06 UK's Immigration System: Challenges and Changes
21:25 Economic and Social Consequences of Brexit
34:48 Historical Reflections and Trade Realities
36:57 Brexit's Timing and Globalisation Challenges
38:02 Political Nuances and Public Opinion
38:55 Future of UK-EU Relations
44:13 UK's Global Role and Diplomatic Strengths
47:14 Think-Tank Insights and Regulatory Challenges
57:42 Quickfire - Get To Know Anand
01:02:20 Wrap Up
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Transcript
After Brexit, we're a bit sort of spiritually at sea about who is Britain now?
Speaker A:And re sort of discovering it.
Speaker B:I mean, we are, but I don't think that's because of Brexit.
Speaker B:I think that's because of Trump.
Speaker B:Brexit clearly divided us.
Speaker B:Those people who felt European versus those people who really didn't feel European, I suppose.
Speaker B:But I think what we're about to see with the United States is going to have a far more profound psychological impact on us than Brexit, to be honest.
Speaker A:What does the research suggest about immigration?
Speaker B:We've had record levels of net immigration.
Speaker B:Last year's numbers were over 700,000.
Speaker B:And if you think about it, the year of the referendum, where a lot of Leave voters voted to cut immigration, the net figure was 330,000.
Speaker B:This isn't freedom of movement that you can't control.
Speaker B:This is legal visa driven immigration, which is a direct result of the policies that Boris Johnson put in place.
Speaker A:America, like Britain, has done probably as much damage in the world as, you know, some of the better things they've done, isn't it?
Speaker B:I mean, kind of.
Speaker B:I mean, one of the ironies of what's happening to USAID is everyone's coming to realize just how absolutely central the United States was to, to sort of humanitarian work the world over, you know, and actually people now are talking about, my God, how do you fill the gap?
Speaker B:And the answer is, we probably can't.
Speaker A:Hi, and welcome to Business Without Bullshit.
Speaker A:We're here to help the founders, entrepreneurs, business owners, anyone who wrestles with the job of being in charge.
Speaker A:And if you like what we do here, please rate and review us on Spotify and Apple and come say hi on YouTube if you fancy watching us in links are in the episode description or just search for wblondon.
Speaker A:This week I talked to Anand Menon, a political science professor and think tank director, about the evidence around Brexit, both good and bad, as well as the reversal of globalization in a broader sense.
Speaker A:We discuss why we need to redraw our mental map of the Western alliance as a result of Trump's actions in the us, whether immigration is good for the economy and why the UK's net migration figures are likely to come down from their current levels.
Speaker A:Hint it's nothing to do with the stopping small boats.
Speaker A:Plus how the people paying the highest price for Brexit are likely to be the ones who voted for it.
Speaker A:And how the Brexit burden on trading goods sits disproportionately on SMEs it was a pleasure to have a conversation based on evidence rather than ideology and entrenched opinion.
Speaker A:And as Anand says, the reason people listen to us is because they don't know what we're going to say.
Speaker A:And remember.
Speaker A:I'll be sharing my key takeaways from the chat with Anand during the show.
Speaker A:I am Andy Ory and today we are joined by Anand Menon.
Speaker A:Anand is director of UK in a Changing Europe, an academic think tank providing impartial research based analysis of the critical issues facing the uk, its evolving relationship with the European Union and its place in the world.
Speaker A:Arnan is also a professor of European Politics and Foreign affairs at King's College London.
Speaker A:Has built a reputation as one of the UK's foremost experts on European politics, Brexit and the evolving challenges facing the uk.
Speaker A:With regular media appearances and contributions to key policy discussions, Arnan has been instrumental in shaping public understanding of the political, economic and social consequences of Brexit.
Speaker A:Anand, a warm welcome to the podcast.
Speaker B:Thank you very much.
Speaker B:We could just leave it there, actually.
Speaker B:That was such a lovely introduction.
Speaker B:I think that does it all, really.
Speaker A:I mean, exactly.
Speaker A:And I mean, obviously this is a topic, an enormous topic, really.
Speaker A:You know, I feel very similar that after Brexit we're a bit sort of spiritually at sea about who is Britain now and re sort of discovering it.
Speaker A:Do you, do you feel that, that we're in a process of transition at the moment about re understanding who we.
Speaker B:Are or, I mean, we are.
Speaker B:But I don't think that's because of Brexit.
Speaker B:I think that's because of Trump.
Speaker B:I mean, you know, since the inauguration, with all the slew of things that him and his collaborators have been doing, you know, that I think is discombobulating.
Speaker B:You know, is the United States still an ally?
Speaker B:Does it share our values?
Speaker B:I think those things are far more profound than any rethink that went on Brexit.
Speaker B:I mean, Brexit clearly divided us.
Speaker B:Those people who felt European versus those people who really didn't feel European, I suppose.
Speaker B:But I don't think, I think what we're about to see with the United States is going to have a far more profound psychological impact on us than Brexit, to be honest.
Speaker A:And it's because the, the enormous weight and gravity of America and how it shapes international politics and how we're so close to that relationship.
Speaker B:Yeah, I think there's that sense of kinship with the United States, people say, divided by a common language, which I think is true, but just also the degree to which Stuff that we have got used to over the whole of the post Second World War period is being called into question.
Speaker B:The Western alliance, the financial institutions that the United States set up in the aftermath of the Second World War, he's questioning all of those things.
Speaker B:So it's kind of like you need to completely redo your mental map of what the world is and how it works, which is.
Speaker B:Which is scary.
Speaker A:I can't even keep up with it.
Speaker A:And my American clients and friends I talk to, they, yeah, they.
Speaker A:Someone was just saying yesterday, saying, look, everyone in, you know, the US at the moment, actually he was based in Denver and quite a large business, but he said everyone's just, just taking a moment at the moment because they really don't know which direction anything's going.
Speaker B:You know, I think that's true.
Speaker B:I think Trump, I mean, Trump is good at this and in a sense what he's done is given this sense of getting down to business.
Speaker B:I mean, can compare him and it's a cruel comparison, maybe with the Starmer government here, where it's all very slow and methodical and people are getting fed up.
Speaker B:Six months in, Trump's there, day one on that stage of the night of the inauguration balls, signing executive orders saying, we're going to rename this bit of sea, we're going to take back this bit of land we're going to do, and we'll have to wait and see how much of it actually happens.
Speaker B:But he's giving a sense of activity, but I think even behind that, I get a sense this time round that he's going to be a lot more serious, that the team around him have got real plans to do some pretty radical stuff that's going to change America and the world quite profoundly.
Speaker A:Is this, in your opinion, a bad or a good thing or neither?
Speaker A:You know, chaos, in a funny sense, is sometimes creates opportunity and can be better than doing nothing.
Speaker A:It's like, you know, do something, don't do anything.
Speaker A:Or would you think this is a really bad thing that's going on?
Speaker B:So one of the things about UK and changing Europe is we're not allowed to have opinions.
Speaker B:But I'm going to break my golden rule on this and just say, yep, you can see the virtues of being disruptive.
Speaker B:What breaks my heart is the human cost of some of this thing.
Speaker B:So the human cost of the planned deportations.
Speaker B:I mean, you remember last time around we had those horrible pictures of kids in cages and you should read some of the stories about USAID.
Speaker B:Like a friend of mine, what's USAID.
Speaker B:The USAID, oh yes, aid giving party.
Speaker B:The U.S.
Speaker B:government, which funds the majority of international aid globally.
Speaker B:And every day you see a new story about, you know, HIV clinics in Sub Saharan Africa closing overnight because they can no longer afford to buy the drugs.
Speaker B:A good friend of mine at King's was saying yesterday that one of the programs that USAID funded was to pay for security guards at arms dumps in Sub Saharan Africa.
Speaker B:Those arms dumps no longer have security guards out.
Speaker B:I mean, the human cost many miles away from the United States of what they're doing I think is pretty horrible.
Speaker A:Do you know, but it's such an interesting question is that, you know, America, like Britain has done probably as much damage in the world as, you know, some of the better things they've done, isn't it?
Speaker A:So I think they're almost doing a kind of, should they get involved, let's get out of it.
Speaker B:I mean, kind of, I mean, one of the ironies of what's happening to USAID is everyone's coming to realize just how absolutely central the United States was to sort of humanitarian work the world over, you know, and actually people now are talking about, my God, well, how do you fill the gap?
Speaker B:And the answer is we probably can't.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, that's right.
Speaker A:When you ever, you look at those stats, it's like America is contributing these enormous sums of money.
Speaker A:And actually, you know something, I've been very sad with a sister in law who's from America and watching, you know, kind of how, you know, the British people react to Americans.
Speaker A:You know, I don't want to use the, the racism word, but we kind of like, it's kind of okay to bash Americans.
Speaker A:We're kind of, we don't treat them very well.
Speaker A:And actually if you study our history, you know, and I'm generalizing, you know, I'm sure that people say, oh, that's not true, sort of thing, but we kind of look down on Americans.
Speaker A:So I don't know what it is.
Speaker A:I mean, we find, we find certain things are the way, you know, but I notice very much that we don't, you know, the Marshall Plan, which changed this country, allowed us to set up the nhs, you know, these, these huge things, you know, if they, ultimately we would have probably lost a couple of world wars without their help.
Speaker A:So I find it quite interesting, our relationship with them that we can be quite negative.
Speaker B:I mean, punching up is usually a better thing to do than punching down, isn't it?
Speaker B:And you know, let's Face it, your average American really doesn't give a toss what we think.
Speaker B:Yeah, I mean, you know, we don't feature in that thinking.
Speaker B:I think that's one of the things we struggle to get used to in this country is actually, you know, the Americans aren't obsessed with us.
Speaker B:When Americans talk about the special relationship, they usually put it in sort of air quotes or smile when they say it.
Speaker B:And you talk to American policymakers and they'll say, yeah, we've got loads of special relationships.
Speaker B:We've got one with Israel, we've got one, you know.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah, we just have the one.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:So interesting.
Speaker A:Let's start just slightly, then back.
Speaker A:Tell us, what is UK in a changing Europe?
Speaker B:So we're a network of academics, which doesn't sound massively inspiring, I know, but what we are funded to do is to explain to normal people what the research says.
Speaker B:So we're like the communications arm of social science in British universities.
Speaker B:So our website and everything we put on our website, the USP, is that if you're an all right, educated 17, 18 year old, you can read our stuff and understand it first time.
Speaker B:So we get the top social scientists, economists, lawyers, geographers, people who study politics to write for us, but to write in a way that anyone can understand.
Speaker B:So we give a lot of support to civil servants, to politicians, to business associations.
Speaker B:We do a lot of public events and we just try and explain what the evidence says.
Speaker B:So just to take an example, it's quite topical today when we're recording, because all of PMQ's was about immigration.
Speaker B:We've done a lot of work on immigration.
Speaker B:What's the reality?
Speaker B:What are the numbers?
Speaker B:How does the system work?
Speaker B:And we try and explain that to people.
Speaker A:Please, let's understand.
Speaker A:That's a real hot potato.
Speaker A:You know, I've got businesses all over London, you know, screaming for people and, you know, and struggling to bring them in.
Speaker A:But then obviously you have the other, other side of it, you know, and are told, you know, many things that we can't afford.
Speaker A:All these people and it's terrible and stuff like this.
Speaker A:What does the research suggest about immigration?
Speaker B:The bottom line stuff is very, very clear.
Speaker B:We've had record levels of net immigration.
Speaker B:Last year's numbers were over 700,000.
Speaker B:And if you think about it, the year of the referendum where a lot voters voted to cut immigration, the net figure was 330,000.
Speaker A:But those old figures I looked into it don't include European mega.
Speaker A:We used to not count European.
Speaker B:We did, but we're not very good at counting in the sense that we've never been very clear in because we don't sort of count people in and count people out.
Speaker B:The numbers have always been dubious.
Speaker B:So post referendum, when we were introducing the so called settle status scheme for Europeans who were here, the government guessed that there were sort of 2, 3 million Europeans here.
Speaker B:I think almost 6 million have registered for the settle status scheme.
Speaker B:So our numbers are all over the place, which makes it quite hard to do this.
Speaker B: ation has almost doubled from: Speaker B:The other thing that's happened, of course is the composition of immigration has changed.
Speaker B:Europeans, we have a net outflow of Europeans now rather than a net inflow.
Speaker B:But what we have now are loads of people from particular Nigeria and India coming.
Speaker B:So we've increased the numbers and changed the location from which those people are coming.
Speaker A:Is there any sense of why?
Speaker A:Because it doesn't feel, it may feel like to it on services and things like that.
Speaker A:But it's so hard to get visas.
Speaker A:I mean, where is a business?
Speaker A:We get visas.
Speaker A:It's hard to get visas.
Speaker B:It is hard to get visas, but it's easier to get visas now than it used to be because actually Boris Johnson put in place a pretty liberal immigration regime that was meant to encourage people who fulfill the criteria.
Speaker B:So it's a salary criteria that you've got to meet.
Speaker A:You know that's not true from our experience, interestingly.
Speaker A:Really we're immigration lawyers now.
Speaker A:It was much used.
Speaker A:Well, let's be real, you used to have something called the entrepreneur visa and it allowed anyone who had more than £200,000 to invest in a UK company to come.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Now I have to set up a company, get a sponsorship license for that company, get an employee for that company, pay a lot of money and then I can sponsor someone to come.
Speaker A:There's other visas.
Speaker A:Global talent visa, very hard to get.
Speaker A:Startup visa, very hard to get.
Speaker A:Most of the other visas are really hard.
Speaker A:And then there's the overseas expansion visa.
Speaker A:Our experience for many of our clients is it's much harder to get visas and we mainly deal with Australia, New Zealand, America and Canadian, Canadians, people from Europe, people from India.
Speaker A:But it's much harder than it used to be to get visas for business purposes.
Speaker B:Really interesting because the numbers have shot up.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And we can't work it out.
Speaker A:That's why I looked into it and I, and I, well, whatever I found on Google or whatever eventually said, well, you know, Europe basically wasn't counted.
Speaker A:It's like moving around Europe.
Speaker A:It's why people commit a lot of tax forward.
Speaker A:They don't know what country anyone's in, you know, used to move.
Speaker B:So we had a border.
Speaker B:We're not in Schengen, so you could count them in and count them if you wanted to.
Speaker A:We just didn't.
Speaker B:We were just never very good at it.
Speaker B:But, I mean, I think, you know, there's also the stuff now.
Speaker B:So there's a lot of students come because they've sort of opened that scheme up.
Speaker B:A lot of Indian students coming here.
Speaker B:There's also the shortage occupation stuff.
Speaker B:So a lot of people in the NHS and in the care sector who don't make the salary threshold.
Speaker A:But, you know, it felt like a lot of Europeans left.
Speaker A:I mean, certainly just anecdotally, as someone who goes to a bar occasionally, in London, all the Italians left and they were excellent at that service and, you know, running bars.
Speaker B:I mean, just anecdotally, you go into a coffee shop now, you're more likely to see an Indian serving you.
Speaker B:I went and had eye surgery.
Speaker B:So I live in Oxford.
Speaker B:I had eye surgery just outside Oxford, a place called Banbury NHS Hospital.
Speaker B:And there were two technicians, three nurses and a surgeon.
Speaker B:And they were all from Kerala, which is where I'm from.
Speaker B:So we had the whole conversation in Malayalam, which is our language, and it was just a bit surreal.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Well, I mean, my wife said, doctor, the nhs.
Speaker A:She made me laugh.
Speaker A:She's from Trinidad.
Speaker A:And they had a guy come in, this is a few years ago, into AE and go, I only want to see an English doctor.
Speaker A:Someone came out after a bit and said, well, we've got a Trini, a Nigerian, we've got an Indian.
Speaker B:Well, you get that.
Speaker B:My cousin actually is a trauma surgeon in Pittsburgh and she's had cases of people going there in, like, massive pain for trauma surgery, saying, get me a white doctor.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, that's crazy.
Speaker A:But it felt like what was happening, and I know this happening in the building trade and stuff is the huge amount of Europeans would come over in the peak times of, say, the summer when all the tourists were.
Speaker A:Or they'd come over for.
Speaker A:To do construction work and then they go back so they wouldn't count, they hadn't moved here.
Speaker A:And now we've.
Speaker A:We've cut that off and we've got geography.
Speaker A:Bloody hell.
Speaker A:You know, we're gonna actually permanently have to import these people to do these jobs rather than, you know, and I.
Speaker A:I Have a build, a friend who's Polish and he.
Speaker A:I remember him saying after the Brexit votes, to be honest, Andy, I'm probably for it.
Speaker A:He says, I run a proper business, I run proper things.
Speaker A:And they take a flat, they put 10 people in it, they come over and then, you know, I can't compete against them, they're giving prices I can't compete at.
Speaker A:My Polish colleagues says, you know, I don't resent them for it, but they're technically, you know, making, you know, they're.
Speaker A:Because they don't end up paying, you know, CIS construction industry scheme that would take 20, if you really care about the tax.
Speaker A:But, yeah, there's something in that, that there used to be a sort of influx and outflow in every year and.
Speaker B:You'Re not going to come.
Speaker B:You're not going to come from India to pick soft fruit in Lincolnshire and go home after three months.
Speaker B:So, yeah, it changes things.
Speaker B:If they're coming from further away, then there's a question of whether they bring dependents.
Speaker B:So it's, It's a different sort of immigration and it, it has all sorts of reproductions.
Speaker A:What's it done to the country, you know, in terms of the huge amount of immigration?
Speaker A:Now, traditionally, when I seen that analysis, and there was a lot of this before Brexit, is that they would say, actually, you know, the majority of these immigrants work hard, add to the economy, pay their taxes.
Speaker A:Yeah, there's a percentage who are taking from the economy, but it mostly helps.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, the numbers are complicated and there's a massive fight about this.
Speaker B:I think in general, immigrants contribute more.
Speaker A:Contribute more, but it's the short term stress.
Speaker B:Immigrants get old.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So at a certain point they're going to be receiving NHS care or social care, if we ever have a social care system or whatever it is.
Speaker B:So those people will get old too.
Speaker B:So in a sense you can say, yep, they're here, they're working hard, but what happens when they're old?
Speaker B:Does that just mean you have to keep doing it?
Speaker B:And at a certain point, I mean, I think politically, numbers of net 700,000 plus are unsustainable because we see what that's doing to our politics and, you know, we have got serious issues here with.
Speaker B:I mean, our housing problem isn't because of immigration, Our housing problem is because for decades we just failed to build houses, like, stupidly, and made planning and.
Speaker A:All, everything, so difficult.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's funny because that Dominic Cummings, that interesting character, but I remember reading on his website before Brexit his whole reason for Brexit was about that immigration was becoming a bigger and bigger issues in various countries.
Speaker A:So the way to do that was for us to get control of our border.
Speaker A:But I guess you could argue, is this a short term correction?
Speaker A:So if the level of immigration we have is unsustainable, but basically we stop the easy flow of Europeans going back and forward and buggering off for winter sensibly back down to southern Italy, that we've now got sort of a mass influx to fill all these jobs gap while we train everyone up to sort of, you know, train up our local people.
Speaker B:We have a, we have labor market shortages and, you know, we can argue about what the causes of that are.
Speaker B:But I think, I'd say, I mean, one thing worth saying now is we are in control of our.
Speaker B:We have taken back control of our borders.
Speaker B:I mean, this is one of the weirdest things about the dog days of the Conservative government was you had that net figure of 750,000 or thereabouts, and the Tory MPs were saying, this is a scandal.
Speaker B:Why are the numbers so high?
Speaker B:Well, the simple answer is the numbers are so high because you issued that number of visas.
Speaker B:I mean, this is your policy.
Speaker B:This isn't freedom of movement that you can't control.
Speaker B:This is legal visa driven immigration, which is a direct result of the policies that Boris Johnson puts in place.
Speaker B:I mean, it's also worth saying that irregular migration, the small boats and stuff, is a very small proportion.
Speaker A:Yes, Tiny Paul.
Speaker A:Oh, no.
Speaker A:I mean, the bit I lost on the politics when that became the flagship policy.
Speaker A:I was, look, I understand that might be an issue, but that should not be your flagship policy.
Speaker A:Let's have a more grown up conversation because they're almost rounding error.
Speaker A:You know, I would love offline to have a conversation to show you what we've seen from businesses trying to expand to the uk, how, how difficult they've got in a moment.
Speaker A:There's always people in the us.
Speaker A:I was at a big event and they were going, well, it's great.
Speaker A:You know, there's all these people who don't like Trump and all this talent coming to America.
Speaker A:And I said, they can't get the visas.
Speaker A:And they were like, what do you mean?
Speaker A:What's the visa for them like?
Speaker A:They could set up a business and get a sponsorship license.
Speaker A:It will take them a year and they need to employ someone here and they need to have a business and jump through all these hoops and they still might not be allowed.
Speaker A:And then it's going to take them ages to get settlement.
Speaker A:Any there is.
Speaker A:You know, the, the golden visa that, you know, America's is $350,000, ours is 2 million quid.
Speaker A:And in America, if you want a visa and live in America, you give them $350,000 which they invest in property on your behalf.
Speaker A:You keep the money.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:You know, you, they just invest it for you and say, great, we've got this big building thing down in Philadelphia.
Speaker A:We'll chuck it in that for you.
Speaker A:Don't worry, you'll be good.
Speaker A:You get a visa and you can get one for your whole family and.
Speaker B:You get the returns on that money.
Speaker A:Yeah, my understanding, I'm not getting it back.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:It's an investment in their.
Speaker A:There, in, in America, but after X.
Speaker B:Years you can claim the lumber.
Speaker A:Yeah, a bit like the entrepreneur visa, you know what I mean?
Speaker A:You.
Speaker A:They would handle and invest that money for you and nothing here, here.
Speaker A:I mean, and again, we need a, you know, I've got that from a US visa expert, but I'm probably misquoting them, but that was my understanding.
Speaker A:That's what they do, you know.
Speaker A:And here it's like, you know, it's 2 million quid, you know, for the, for the.
Speaker A:If you can come in and you.
Speaker B:Know, and it's expensive for people to get visas and stuff.
Speaker A:Oh, it's very expensive, you know, so it's really interesting.
Speaker A:There's obviously, obviously something going on at a lower level where, you know, there are hundreds of thousands of visas being issued.
Speaker B:Numbers will go down.
Speaker B:I mean, it's worth saying that because a lot of those numbers were Hong Kongers and Ukrainians who came under specific.
Speaker A:Schemes, the Hong Kong and Ukraine.
Speaker B:A lot of them were students who just making use of the newfound freedoms post Covid were coming over here.
Speaker B:But of course they'll go back.
Speaker B:So, you know, when the numbers come out in May, they'll be significantly lower than they were.
Speaker B:And of course what will happen then is the labor government will take the credit for that.
Speaker B:I mean, it's a weird thing.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's really interesting.
Speaker A:I mean, overall, therefore you're there to analyze that information.
Speaker A:So just to finish up on immigration, the numbers are gonna come down.
Speaker A:They were unsustainable at that level.
Speaker A:Do we know what is sustainable, what.
Speaker B:Is good for the country?
Speaker A:Nobody knows.
Speaker B:I mean, it's partly a question.
Speaker B:I mean, one of the things to bear in mind is.
Speaker B: on immigration than it was in: Speaker B:Significantly so.
Speaker B:Oh, really?
Speaker A:We sort out about it and actually.
Speaker B: ing things that happened post: Speaker B: You know, we had elections in: Speaker B:It just wasn't an issue anymore because partly, I think, because this belief we'd taken the control of our border, so it was no longer an issue.
Speaker B: tion now as they were were in: Speaker B:I mean, you know, reform voters tend to think immigration is the single most important issue, but, you know, Labour Party voters certainly don't.
Speaker A:What are the other biggest misconceptions, then?
Speaker A:What are the big misconceptions, do you think, about UK's relationship with Europe then after Brexit?
Speaker B:It's interesting.
Speaker B:I mean, you know, there was a lot of nonsense talked about Brexit and what it would do and the impact it would have.
Speaker B:You know, on the one hand, the Remain camp was saying, you know, we leave the European Union and it'll be a car crash.
Speaker B:Cliff edge was the phrase they used to, like, use.
Speaker B:It was almost as if the economy would just stop the day after we left, and that was never going to be the case.
Speaker B:Equally, there were Brexiters out there saying, if we leave the European Union, it'll be really good for our economy.
Speaker B:Now, that really wasn't going to be the case either, because, I mean, the simple fact is we've made trade with our nearest, richest and biggest trading partner more difficult, more expensive, more time consuming, more bureaucratic, and so there's less of it.
Speaker B:And that was always going to have an impact.
Speaker B:Now what's happened has been quite interesting because curiously, services.
Speaker B:So, you know, your profession, my profession, people who sell services abroad.
Speaker B:Our services trade has done really, really well after Brexit, despite the fact there's all sorts of new paperwork and.
Speaker A:Well, because the fact there's new paperwork.
Speaker A:So we're needed more, aren't we, for services?
Speaker B:Well, no, but there's paperwork for us.
Speaker B:So if I wanted to go and give a guest lecture in a university and get paid, there'd be visa issues, there'd be paperwork in a way that there wasn't before.
Speaker B:And I think one of the reasons why services have held up is partly it's global.
Speaker B:So actually we're doing a lot more services trade with the us.
Speaker B:Than we used to, partly because of devaluation of the pound.
Speaker B:Also, I think, curiously, Covid has helped because Covid taught us to work remotely.
Speaker B:So if someone says to me now, do you want to come and give a guest lecture in Warsaw?
Speaker B:I'll be like, you know what?
Speaker B:Can I just do it online?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And that used to be.
Speaker B:So that's something we never used to do before.
Speaker B:But the area where there's been an impact is goods, manufactured goods particularly.
Speaker B:There's all sorts of.
Speaker B:Of paperwork.
Speaker B:You know, there was.
Speaker B:The head of M and S was on the radio a few weeks ago saying that they've hired warehouses to store the paperwork.
Speaker B:And that's where you're seeing at that.
Speaker A:Point, you think, well, guys, yeah, so.
Speaker B:You know, people who import or export agricultural products, car manufacturers, all those sort of manufacturing industries are suffering.
Speaker B:And the irony there, it's a cruel irony, is what economists are starting to see is that the parts of the country that are going to be worst hit by Brexit are precisely those parts of the country that voted most strongly for it.
Speaker A:But isn't that always the way it works?
Speaker A:Careful what you wish for.
Speaker A:I mean, it's always sort of whatever you want most, you'll get the opposite.
Speaker A:It's this strange irony in life.
Speaker A:It's like possibly.
Speaker B:Yeah, it doesn't have to be like that.
Speaker A:But it is so often is though, isn't it?
Speaker A:It's sort of.
Speaker B:You know, the two parts of the UK that are being least affected at the moment are London and Scotland, which of course are the two parts.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Than Ireland.
Speaker A:I mean, the services one is curious, I think, for sure.
Speaker A:You know, this sort of insulisation of our manufacturing issue, I mean, is the car manufacturing industry, you know, was quite.
Speaker A:We were quite big in car manufacturing.
Speaker A:No one really realized it.
Speaker B:I mean, big, but shrinking.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, but, yeah, but before Brexit, we were big and shrinking as well, were we?
Speaker B:We were shrinking a little, yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, there's a lot of competition out there and of course the British car industry, as in British owned.
Speaker A:That went down with Leyland, didn't it?
Speaker A:You know.
Speaker A:You know, got a brilliant idea.
Speaker A:Let's put all our best car companies together and then just make it go wrong.
Speaker B:So now you have the Minis made by BMW, you have jlr, which is Indian.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:What's less Austin Martin.
Speaker A:No, there's no British brand left.
Speaker A:I think there's.
Speaker A:There's some little ones, isn't there?
Speaker B:Well, I imagine.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:I don't know, to be honest, whether I don't know who owns Aston Martin.
Speaker B:I think Bentley is certainly owned by.
Speaker B:There's Dame Labentley now, isn't it?
Speaker A:Okay, Brexit's happened.
Speaker A:It's happened.
Speaker A:You're not allowed to give opinions, but.
Speaker B:Well, it's still happening.
Speaker A:It's still happening.
Speaker A:It's like a very slow car crash, isn't it?
Speaker B:I mean, I think it's a very slow.
Speaker B:Slow puncture is how I would characterize it.
Speaker B:That basically over time it will have a bit of a drag effect on the economy.
Speaker B: the great financial crisis of: Speaker B:But still it'll happen.
Speaker A:Don't you then get the opposite that people innovate and you get, you know, there's actually something, you know, again, you don't get quite what you think you're going to get.
Speaker A:You think, oh, it's really for the economy.
Speaker A:But then actually people react and you get this sort of opposite reaction that people have to innovate different kinds of businesses.
Speaker B:You may do.
Speaker B:You may just not grow as quickly as you.
Speaker B:I mean, I think most serious economists would say the economy isn't doing as well as it would have been if we'd been in.
Speaker B:Because trade has not only the impact of trade itself, but there's a dynamic impact of trade.
Speaker B:And most economists reckon that trade, the greater your openness to trade, the greater the productivity gains because your business is.
Speaker B:Are spurred to adapt in the face of this competition for abroad.
Speaker B:You insulate them from that competition.
Speaker B:They get a little bit lazy and it's like, well, actually, you know, they can't export here anyway anymore.
Speaker B:It's too hard.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:And also people all got the hump with us.
Speaker A:I mean, you know, I had people turning up here, you know, Italian saying to me, oh, it's unfriendly here now.
Speaker A:You know, people, and it's like, yeah, you've sort of split up with your girlfriend.
Speaker B:Well, I think there were several things post Brexit.
Speaker B:I mean, firstly, there was the uncertainty.
Speaker B:What the hell happens to us?
Speaker B:What will our status be?
Speaker B:Secondly, there was a perception that you had, you know, I heard it amongst colleagues in academia that this is no longer a welcoming place for us.
Speaker B:This is a country that wants us out, so why would we stay here?
Speaker B: ,: Speaker B:And it didn't make as much sense to work here in pounds as it would have done to get paid in euros in France or Germany or whatever.
Speaker A:Yeah, you forget how much because it's never recovered, has it?
Speaker A:I remember looking at the dollar to pound rate.
Speaker A:It wasn't that long ago that it was a hell of a higher.
Speaker A:You know, I think I looked and it was only 10 years ago, it was 1.8 or 1.9 to the.
Speaker B:Well, when I lived in the.
Speaker B: I lived in the US, sort of: Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Bloody fun days they were.
Speaker A:Yeah, I bet.
Speaker B:No, like Macy's on a weekend was full of Brits coming over for the weekend to go shopping.
Speaker B:I mean.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, I remember it too.
Speaker A:We used to go to America a lot when I was young and it was.
Speaker A:Yeah, it was a wonderful time.
Speaker A:I mean, an amusing note.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:When Brexit happened, you know, who left anecdotally again?
Speaker A:But all my.
Speaker A:All the French clients we had just left.
Speaker A:They all went like, how dare you?
Speaker A:You know, they were so upset by it.
Speaker A:They were.
Speaker A:I would love to see the stats, but I guarantee you the fret.
Speaker A:More French people left than ever.
Speaker B:You could see the evidence.
Speaker B:I mean, the French.
Speaker B:Lisa in London was struggling to attract teachers at one point.
Speaker B:I mean, it sort of has these.
Speaker B:And, you know, a lot of people just took this very personally and very emotionally.
Speaker A:That's how the French definitely took it.
Speaker B:Well, a lot of British people.
Speaker B:A lot of British people.
Speaker B:People just treat.
Speaker B:I mean, we're acting like they'd been a bereavement.
Speaker B:Yeah, it was interesting.
Speaker A:I mean, I'm a big, you know, I think we're so tribally wired as animals, you know, that it's, you know, and there's that stuff about apes that they're.
Speaker A:If you're in our tribe, we'll kill for you.
Speaker A:If you're outside of our tribe, we'll kill you.
Speaker A:You know, it's like a sort of.
Speaker A:There's a viciousness to us.
Speaker A:Like we're so kind when we're in the tribe and we're so.
Speaker B:Again, putting that in context, I don't think Europeans.
Speaker B:If you think about European governments or the people in other European states, I don't think they think about as much anymore.
Speaker B:They moved on.
Speaker B:I mean, this is the other thing.
Speaker A:Well, isn't that the joke?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:You know, don't worry about what people are thinking about you, because they're not thinking about you.
Speaker A:At all.
Speaker A:You think they were thinking about us more before?
Speaker B:Well, I mean, they were thinking about it a lot during the negotiations because, you know, we were annoying, big deal.
Speaker B:And they had to get it sorted.
Speaker B:But now I think, I mean, for a lot of them, they think Brexit is done, move on.
Speaker B:They're perfectly happy with the trading relationship because they have a good surplus with us in trade and a services deficit.
Speaker B:And the trade and cooperation agreement is quite good for goods, despite what I said about goods trade and makes service trading a little bit harder.
Speaker B:So they're fairly happy with the status quo.
Speaker B:Now with the Starmer government, it's us that say, oh, can we come back and rethink some of this thing?
Speaker B:There's no guarantee they're going to say yes because actually they've got bigger fish to fry.
Speaker B:They're worried about the United States, they're worried about China, they're worried about migration, they're worried about their next seven year budget that they're about to start negotiating.
Speaker B:All those things are far more important in their minds than we are.
Speaker A:What do you think our key challenges are then in the coming years, you know?
Speaker B:Well, I mean, that's easy, isn't it?
Speaker B:It is making the economy grow.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:I mean, there are external challenges as well.
Speaker B:I mean, we're very vulnerable to the world and we've seen that, you know, we've seen the impact of Brexit, we've seen the impact of COVID we've seen the impact of the war in Ukraine, which was the sort of cost of living crisis.
Speaker B:So we are very exposed to what goes.
Speaker B:So there's a lot of things that can have a massive impact.
Speaker B:You look at Rachel Reeves fiscal plans, okay, they can be blown out of the water by stuff she has absolutely no say over.
Speaker B:So that's a challenge.
Speaker B:But actually it's almost not worth thinking about because we're not going to control what Donald Trump does.
Speaker B:And if we end up with enormous inflation because of Trump's tariffs or an American economic crisis, there's nothing we can do about it.
Speaker B:We've got to live with the consequences.
Speaker B:But I think here, domestically, the government's quite right.
Speaker B:Growth is the key.
Speaker A:And now a quick word from our sponsor.
Speaker A:Business Without Bullshit is brought to you by Ori Clark.
Speaker A: ancial and legal advice since: Speaker A:You can find us@oriclark.com Ori is spelled O U r Y.
Speaker A:Before we press on, just a quick reminder to come say hi on whatever social platform you like.
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Speaker A:Okay, let me ask this question.
Speaker A:For me, it often feels like everyone forgets this is just a nation of entrepreneurs.
Speaker A:They forget.
Speaker A:There's only actually just looked up again, it's gone up a bit.
Speaker A:There's 8,000 businesses with more than 250 people and, you know, 5.6 million with less.
Speaker A:And it feels always we're making decisions based around, oh, big business.
Speaker A:You know, as an economist, I mean, maybe the data is harder to see, but do you think that there's not, you know, that we understand how much this is a nation of entrepreneurs.
Speaker A:If you want to make it grow, you've got to focus on that community rather than the bigger companies.
Speaker B:I think you've got to focus on.
Speaker B:But I'm not an economist by the way.
Speaker B:I'm a political scientist.
Speaker B:Okay, my apologies, I struggle with the economics myself.
Speaker B:I think you've got to focus on both.
Speaker B:Both.
Speaker B:I think there is a perception in the business community they've been unfairly done to by this government so far because of the national insurance rise and the threshold and the rise of the minimum wage.
Speaker B:I'll tell you as a good suggestion for a future guest, there's a mate of mine called Martin McTague who is the president of the Federation of Small Businesses.
Speaker B:You should have him.
Speaker A:I'd love to have him on.
Speaker B:He's absolutely fascinating on the problems that these smaller firms confront and a slight frustration that government spends all its time talking to the multinationals.
Speaker A:That's what I'm saying.
Speaker A:Yeah, I would.
Speaker A:I give the example every time.
Speaker A:If you're a really big company, you get a representative of HMRC to make sure everything's going okay and any problems you need, let's iron them out.
Speaker A:Let's find a compromise.
Speaker A:We've got to get you guys making money.
Speaker A:That's not what happens to SMEs.
Speaker A:We get, we get shafted by.
Speaker B:When I was talking about trade, one of the interesting things we found is that a lot of small companies have pulled out of the EU import export market.
Speaker A:Of course they are, because impossible, you.
Speaker B:Know, if you're a multinational, you've got a compliance department, you've got your own lawyers, you've got your people who can fill in the paperwork.
Speaker B:If you're a four person firm and you're selling, I don't know, bottles to France or whatever it might be and suddenly there's a ream of paperwork, you might well say, actually at the end of the day it's not worth.
Speaker B:Hassle yeah.
Speaker A:That's why I wonder you could get.
Speaker A:I mean, I wish they would do this, but that's exactly right.
Speaker A:The SME's even bigger but, you know, still small.
Speaker A:They.
Speaker A:They kind of have the capacity to deal with it.
Speaker A:So that's why everyone's looking at America again.
Speaker A:Everyone's gone like, well, that's complicated and in multi languages and it's all a bit of a nightmare what's going on in America.
Speaker A:And you know, and that's happening.
Speaker A:And people even looking at Australia and these other trading relationships.
Speaker A:There's a really interesting thing though, because they're developing those ties.
Speaker A:If we did then rejoin, you know, I think you just rejoined like be Iceland Norway.
Speaker A:Just do the eea, just say, right, let's do the Customs Union, off we go.
Speaker A:You know, we won't need so many immigrants maybe, but you would see a huge boon in the economy there because hopefully they would have built some ties they didn't have and then you re enter this sort of giant market.
Speaker B:Well, I mean, bear in mind several things, but I mean, one, the politics says that's not going to happen in the short term.
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker A:Why though, out of interest is a political side.
Speaker A:Why is there no narrative?
Speaker A:Because everyone I speak to is like.
Speaker B:Well, the Lib Dems are saying it.
Speaker B:The Lib Dems are saying it.
Speaker B:They're the only party that's saying it's.
Speaker B:The Tories are the party of Brexit.
Speaker B:So they're not going to say it because their supporters are Leave voters essentially.
Speaker B:And Labour have this conception of themselves that they want to win back Leave voting Northern voters from their traditional strongholds in the north.
Speaker B: of voters to Boris Johnson in: Speaker B:Well, they left Labour because of Corbyn as well.
Speaker B:There's lots of reasons.
Speaker B:And Labour are quite obsessed with getting those voters back, so they want to appear in inverted commas.
Speaker B:True to Brexit.
Speaker B:So we're going to tinker, we're going to fix Boris Johnson's deal, but we're not going to do anything in the main round, the Customs Union or the single market.
Speaker B:Bear in mind, given what you just said about we've got all these relationships, we can rejoin and keep them.
Speaker B:We can't.
Speaker B:If we join the Customs Union, those trade deals go.
Speaker B:We can't have an independent trade policy inside the Customs Union.
Speaker A:Okay, you can't.
Speaker A:I mean, to me that's always the bit that historically is the up like, you know, when we screwed the Commonwealth because we joined the European Union.
Speaker A:Or at the same time it was called something else, wasn't it?
Speaker B:It was the European Community.
Speaker A:And even before that, I think it was.
Speaker A:Anyway, we, we, you know, we caused the worst recession in Australia, New Zealand ever.
Speaker A:We did this terrible thing and you ask someone old enough, they get so angry with you because it was so upsetting to them that we, we don't even realize we're like, oh, we're European now.
Speaker A:It's like, all right.
Speaker A:And I, you know, I've mentioned this before on this pod, but, you know, I have a very heated row with a very good friend of mine years ago and he said, why do we care about the Australians?
Speaker A:I was like, because about 100,000 of them died for us.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, and I think we should remember our history and who we are and, you know, not just sort of screw over our partners and stuff.
Speaker A:But then I looked it up and it was so fascinating that there are places, there's places in the Caribbean, that part of the Dutch islands, there are places that were brought with into the European Union outside of Europe.
Speaker A:You know, this is strange, you know, and it's because the original, well, the.
Speaker B:French territories, the French territories, Algeria included.
Speaker A:Algeria, Syria, and they, you know, and it's like we just politically, to me, you know, it's easy in retrospect, but.
Speaker B:There was no way we'd have been allowed to join in 73 with Australia.
Speaker B:I mean, you know, well, bringing our.
Speaker A:Commonwealth Free Trade Agreement.
Speaker A:But in a sense it's a sort of like, you can't win, can you?
Speaker B:Because the French wouldn't have said, oh yeah, let's have loads of cheap Australian beef or whatever.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:But isn't that make it a really tricky decision always for Britain about who we are?
Speaker A:Because who are we?
Speaker A:You know, is our Commonwealth is not, you know, the, our history and the countries that we have this history with versus no, we're just.
Speaker A:That's nearest.
Speaker A:We've just got to be friends with.
Speaker B:Them to an extent.
Speaker B:Yeah, they're sort of the Anglophone states and we have particular relationships with the common.
Speaker B:We've got a relationship with European states.
Speaker A:Yeah, of course.
Speaker B:And also, I mean, the fact of the matter is, and this might change with technology, who knows.
Speaker B:But you know, up to now, one of the biggest single determinants of your trade is geography.
Speaker B:So you could sign a trade deal with Australia, you can sign a trade deal with China.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Massive economy growing at what, 5% a year or something like that.
Speaker B:Like that.
Speaker B:But China's a long way away, and that matters.
Speaker B: hink this was true till about: Speaker B:They're huge countries.
Speaker B:They're growing faster than Ireland was.
Speaker A:Take it on the basis of surely we want to trade with everyone.
Speaker A:We want, ultimately the whole world's working towards that.
Speaker A:It's sort of are they or are they not?
Speaker A:Isn't ultimately certainly been Britain's interests all the time.
Speaker A:We're like, let's just do free trade.
Speaker A:The reality is you either do free trade with Europe, it is a closed market, or you don't, you do it with everyone else.
Speaker B:And also bear in mind, everyone is turning their back on free trade now.
Speaker B:I mean, one of the sort of cruel paradoxes of Brexit is we probably left the European Union at possibly the worst time ever in terms of international developments.
Speaker B:Because if you were a Brexiter, you could say, we're going to leave, we're going to become a buccaneering trading country.
Speaker B:And the assumption was globalization would continue as it had, getting stronger and stronger, and our major trading partners would remain liberal, open economies.
Speaker B:Neither of those things have happened.
Speaker B:I mean, a combination of COVID of the war in Ukraine, of strained relations with China has meant that globalization is going backwards.
Speaker B:People are talking about reshoring resilience of supply chains.
Speaker B:We don't want to be dependent on countries for A and B.
Speaker B:We need to make sure we can do them ourselves.
Speaker B:So you're shortening and strengthening supply chains.
Speaker B:And at the same time, both the US and this isn't a Trump thing.
Speaker B:This was under Biden and the EU have turned inwards, have become more protectionist, have started chucking enormous amounts of money in subsidies at domestic industries, which hurt our industries because they're not getting that money.
Speaker B:So it's harder to compete.
Speaker B:So the world has become a more unfriendly place.
Speaker A:Okay, so Labor's obsessed about his votes, also obsessed about growth.
Speaker A:You know, why is it the case that politicians can't say, you know, I just find this just.
Speaker A:It's all.
Speaker A:There's no nuance, it's all sound bites.
Speaker A:It must be a nightmare for them.
Speaker A:No one can do anything wrong.
Speaker A:If they do anything wrong, they have to get fired immediately.
Speaker A:Because people are either good or bad, and no one's in between.
Speaker A:Everyone's like, evil or a good person, you know, and it's like.
Speaker A:And it's like, why can't, you know, why can't they say, listen, you know, explain half of what you're saying and say, you know, the world is reshoring.
Speaker A:I've seen the stats.
Speaker A:70 of the country think that we should be part of the European Union again or whatever, you know.
Speaker A:Well, you know, whatever.
Speaker A:But it's like 70% views.
Speaker A:A mistake.
Speaker B:Whatever percent is.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, a high proportion think it was a mistake.
Speaker B:And a high proportion say, if we had to vote again, I would vote.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker B:Rejoin.
Speaker B:But you ask people if you want to go through that again.
Speaker B:You ask people, do you fancy another referendum?
Speaker B:We can do it all again.
Speaker B:They'll be like, under the.
Speaker A:Do you have to have a referendum to do it?
Speaker B:I think given that we had a referendum first time and given that we had a referendum to leave, it will be politically incredibly difficult to rejoin with.
Speaker B:I mean, the only way that could happen is if you got a government elected on a manifesto pledge to take us in.
Speaker A:Yeah, okay.
Speaker A:So the Liberals could do it if they got in and they said, hey, listen, we're gonna go.
Speaker B:And even then I think it'll be problematic because I think there's a.
Speaker A:So this is our future for certain.
Speaker A:Certainly for the.
Speaker A:I don't.
Speaker B:I mean.
Speaker A:No, no, no, no.
Speaker A:But they're searching for the next generation.
Speaker A:And 30 years.
Speaker B:I'm not a fortune teller.
Speaker B:If you push me, I would say I find it really hard to believe we will be members again in my lifetime.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay, so I'm 60 this year.
Speaker B:So let's be optimistic and say 30 years, right?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Till everyone's forgotten again, basically, you know.
Speaker B:Well, no, because think about what needs to happen.
Speaker B:We need to be in a position where we're willing to talk to them.
Speaker B:And bear in mind the EU is changing in ways that make it less friendly towards us.
Speaker B:It's more.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's more integrated.
Speaker B:It's doing stuff we would never have tolerated if we'd been in.
Speaker A:Really.
Speaker A:It's out of interest.
Speaker A:What's an example?
Speaker B:We have things like the European Commission now has some powers over defence policy, which would be an absolute anathema to any British.
Speaker B:We'd have vetoed it.
Speaker B:And so things like that.
Speaker B:They talk about common, but if you.
Speaker A:Do the Common Market, you're only signing up to trade.
Speaker A:You're not signing up to all those laws, aren't you?
Speaker A:It's like Iceland.
Speaker A:I do.
Speaker A:What do you mean?
Speaker B:What is the Common.
Speaker B:The Common Market.
Speaker A:No, no, no.
Speaker A:If you do European Economic Area, so you say customs union, you say, I will have people and trade and we'.
Speaker B:In line with your European Economic Area.
Speaker B:You're taking on board the whole rule book, are you?
Speaker A:Because Iceland had some.
Speaker A:It has some difference.
Speaker B:Norway is the ea and they.
Speaker A:You'd have to accept every single rule of the European Union without having a.
Speaker A:What's the difference between being in the EU and the EA then?
Speaker A:Nothing.
Speaker B:Well, the EA means you're a rule taker.
Speaker B:I mean, the Norwegians talk about fax diplomacy, I.
Speaker B:E.
Speaker B:You wait by the fax machine, the EU tells you what the rules are, you implement them.
Speaker B:Now, the Norwegians are fine with that, they're very rich, they've got a very simple economy, which is basically, basically, sorry, Norwegians, I'm gonna simplify.
Speaker B:Oil and fish.
Speaker B:Neither of which actually gets that affected by EU regulations.
Speaker B:In our case, we've got a massive complicated economy where all of a sudden what the EU does, regulations on financial services that affect us, even though there's no freedom.
Speaker A:I mean, I know the guy was involved when there was the whole I save scandal and the lawyer, and one of the reasons they could protect ICE and he was saying is because they weren't in the European Union, they still had some sovereignty.
Speaker A:And there was some complicated thing this lawyer explained to me at the time, which is kind of FASC saying.
Speaker B:But, you know, there is, there is very limited flexibility.
Speaker B:But basically a country like us, I struggle to see how public consent would be there for us being governed by a set of rules that someone else is passing.
Speaker A:And those are all rules.
Speaker A:You have to accept all rules.
Speaker A:I thought it was more like rules of good quality of the, you know, the goods need to follow these standards, you know, services.
Speaker A:I didn't think it was like we, right, you've got to have the euro, you've got to do the fence.
Speaker B:No, not the euro, Euro or defense spending.
Speaker B:But things like if the French decide we're going to.
Speaker B:In the European Union, there's rules about the size of bonuses in financial services.
Speaker B:We got rid of those rules.
Speaker B:Now we can have a conversation about whether we should have those rules or not.
Speaker B:But what I'm saying is if the French start saying, okay, we'll have a regulation for that because actually that will constrain the city a little bit.
Speaker B:What are you going to do about that?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:If you're not at the table to.
Speaker B:Stop, you've got the agricultural rules from the European.
Speaker B:You're back in the common agricultural rule.
Speaker A:The problem is there are some major rules you would Opt out of.
Speaker A:But they could.
Speaker B:You don't get to opt out.
Speaker A:No, but you're saying, I don't think if you're, if you're not in the eu, you wouldn't have to.
Speaker A:In you, in the ea, you wouldn't have to do the defense spending thing, you wouldn't have to follow certain things.
Speaker B:You have to make a contribution to the budget, you have to make contribution.
Speaker A:To the project, and you have to follow all the directions.
Speaker B:So you would be contributing to their defense fund.
Speaker A:Yeah, okay.
Speaker B:Absolutely.
Speaker A:So, okay.
Speaker A:So, okay, so there's not, There is no sovereignty in the ea.
Speaker A:You just, you know, why would anyone.
Speaker B:Choose about what sovereignty is?
Speaker B:What sovereignty is?
Speaker A:I just think, you know.
Speaker A:No, like.
Speaker B:But put it this way.
Speaker B:In terms of, in terms of your ability to shape the rules that govern you in descending order.
Speaker B:Out in ea.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:So you're better off in.
Speaker B:Because at least you get a vote and you get a say.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:And you get to sit around the table.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Well, no, it's useful to understand.
Speaker A:So on that basis, on the one hand, it's, it's, it's the trading block to be in, but on the other hand, it will never happen.
Speaker B:I don't know if it'll happen.
Speaker B:But I mean, the other thing, bear in mind, they're not going to sit at a table with us and negotiate until all the parties that look likely to be in government in the near future are in favor of rejoining.
Speaker A:Oh, they need everyone to be into it.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker B:If you were the European Union and you feel like you have the Labour Party, you had a Tory, a Labour Party that wanted in and a Tory party that wanted out.
Speaker B:Why would you spend three years negotiating with the Labour Party, signing a deal?
Speaker B:We have an election, we have a change of government.
Speaker B:The Tory government comes in and says, actually, we're out going out.
Speaker B:I mean, that would just be a waste of everyone's time.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Although to your previous point, it's unlikely to.
Speaker A:If they started to go back in that direction, it would be unlikely to be another generation.
Speaker A:You'd be unlikely to flee.
Speaker A:Flip it over.
Speaker B:All I'm saying, though, is we need a Conservative.
Speaker B:The Conservative Party is a Brexit party now.
Speaker B: e reason Boris Johnson won in: Speaker B: for Remain backing parties in: Speaker B:But the Leave Party was The Leave element was efficient and that's because the Tories sucked up Leave voters and who knows what's going to happen to the Conservative Party now.
Speaker B:But at the moment, it's very, very hard to see a Conservative Party that goes back on its commitment to Brexit.
Speaker A:Is it important that the UK has a global role?
Speaker A:I mean, you know, we always saw.
Speaker B:That's a whole departure, isn't it?
Speaker A:Well, I'm just saying, okay, Brexit's done for now anyway, we're out, you know, so we're on our own.
Speaker A:We may as well be Singapore, you know, we're smoking pipes.
Speaker A:We're an island.
Speaker B:Self image.
Speaker B:We should probably do stuff.
Speaker B:I mean, you know, we're a permanent member of the Security Council, so we have responsibilities via that.
Speaker B:We have a very good global diplomatic service.
Speaker B:We have certain strengths.
Speaker B:We are respected as a country that, to use that horrible phrase, punches above its weight.
Speaker B:We're a relatively small island, but we have global diplomatic networks.
Speaker B:We have a military that used to be a proud and joy.
Speaker B:It's been very, very underfunded recently.
Speaker B:We've got very good intelligence services.
Speaker B:You know, talk to Europeans, they'll say we were weakened on the world stage when you left because we no longer have access to your, you know, our development people are very highly respected worldwide.
Speaker A:Development being Department of Trade, well, it's.
Speaker B:Foreign Office now because they merged dfid, which Department for International Development with the Foreign Office a few years ago.
Speaker A:And so, okay, so we're already in those certain relationships and you know, I mean, you're again, you know, you're not here to give opinions or something.
Speaker A:But who are we and where are we going then?
Speaker A:You know, so we've done the Brexit thing, is the, you know, so we've got these respects.
Speaker A:Are these respects dwindling?
Speaker A:Are they, Are they, You know, should we just get on with being an island?
Speaker A:You know, in our mentality?
Speaker B:I think there's no doubt that, you know, our reputation suffered a bit in the, in the mages.
Speaker B:Yeah, people just sort of looked as the Boris, what the hell has gone on there?
Speaker B:You know, as you know, there's a lot of unsavory language.
Speaker B:The fights with Europe, the madness in Downing street, all that didn't reflect well on us.
Speaker A:But was anyone watching or caring anyway?
Speaker B:Yeah, I think people, people looked at us and went, my God, what's going on?
Speaker B:You know, we just looked a bit, I mean, you know, people associated British with pragmatism, calmness, continuity, spirit, you know, and we suddenly.
Speaker A:And the Queen died.
Speaker B:Yeah, we suddenly had all that stuff.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:It's so strange, the world, isn't it?
Speaker A:You do wonder, you know, how everything happens at the same time.
Speaker B:Perceptions.
Speaker B:I think one of the things Keir Starmer's trying to do is rebuild those perceptions of us as stable, reliable and actually, you know, what goes around comes around at the moment, if you look at continental Europe, look at the elections coming up in Germany, look at the state of politics in France, we suddenly look like quite a safe haven, don't we?
Speaker B:We're quite stable.
Speaker B:We've got a government that is going to be in power for the next four years, whatever, because they've got this whopping great majority, whereas who knows who's going to be in charge of France when they have their election?
Speaker B:Who knows whether the Christian Democrats will be able to create a coalition after their election?
Speaker B:So these things can change quite quickly.
Speaker B:And I think the perception's there again that the UK is sort of normal again, but we live on restricted means.
Speaker B:We can't afford to have the foreign policy we had in the fall 40s and 50s, you know, the period since then we withdrawn east of Suez, we withdrew from.
Speaker B:We let go of the empire, we've retrenched and basically that relative decline is continuing because there are rising economies that are bigger than us.
Speaker A:For your think tank, then, what are the most important issues that you're trying to communicate at the moment?
Speaker A:You know, you're there to take academic research and make it understandable.
Speaker A:So which of the topics are really important?
Speaker B:A report.
Speaker B:We've done a big report on Brexit, because it was a fifth anniversary, that tries to reflect on what happened.
Speaker B:And we've done a big report, which I brought a copy of for you because I'm very kind, on the choices facing British foreign policy in the years to come.
Speaker B:So the foreign policy challenges.
Speaker B:We're going to do something which isn't sexy, I don't think, but is really important on regulation in the United Kingdom, because one of the big challenges of Brexit, of course, was we had to create our own regulatory mechanisms for areas that were previously covered by EU law.
Speaker B:And we're going to do something that analyzes how well we've done, what the gaps are.
Speaker B:There's a big debate about regulation at the moment.
Speaker B: to protect us from the excess: Speaker B:No, sure.
Speaker B:But actually, you know, when I hear people saying, well, we can free up financial services.
Speaker B:My heart sinks a little bit.
Speaker B:And I think, really, you know, it wasn't that long ago.
Speaker A:We don't need gold, you know, any.
Speaker B:Backing standards, you know, that sort of thing.
Speaker B:So actually, I think we've got into the habit, or politicians have got into the habit, habit of talking rather lazily about regulation and what it is and what it means.
Speaker B:Because, yes, sometimes you can have unnecessary, excessive regulation gets in the way of businesses, but quite often you have regulations that are there to uphold certain basic standards, without which we'd be worse off.
Speaker B:I mean, probably economically, but certainly in a sort of broader sense, what we.
Speaker A:Should be doing in our foreign policy, is there any nugget to share from that?
Speaker A:Is there any insight or thought?
Speaker B:In a sense, sense, what Keir Starmer is doing is probably the right thing, which is desperately trying to avoid making any difficult choices between Europe and the United States.
Speaker B:The danger of Trump is he forces us to take sides.
Speaker B:You're either with the United States or you're with the European Union, and that's difficult.
Speaker B:United States is our closest security partner.
Speaker B:The European Union is our biggest trading partner.
Speaker B:We don't want to be in the business of choosing with Trump.
Speaker B:We don't know.
Speaker B:So already, what are we seeing?
Speaker B:We saw the AI summit in Paris and the UK and the US refusing to sign the final declaration.
Speaker B:Declaration.
Speaker B:And I.
Speaker B:I suspect that there are many people in European capitals just going, so you're on that side, are you?
Speaker B:Well, let's see how that works for you.
Speaker B:When you come and discuss the reset.
Speaker A:Like, I watch India, you know, and you're like, you know, you could.
Speaker A:You could stand back from that and say, well, they're on the Russia and China.
Speaker A:It's like, well, look at the map.
Speaker A:They're surrounded by them, you know, and they're trying to keep everyone happy.
Speaker A:You know, they're trying not to, you know, like, make an enemy.
Speaker B:There's a.
Speaker B:There's a psychology about India as well, isn't there?
Speaker B:Which is.
Speaker B:Is they feel no particularly close bond towards.
Speaker B:I mean, there's a cultural bond with the uk.
Speaker B:There's a lot of resentment, a lot of bitterness.
Speaker B:They still think, you know, I've got relatives.
Speaker A:Very mixed.
Speaker A:I find you get sort of really different experiences.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Some people you bump into in India are kind of like, we want the British back.
Speaker A:And you always think that's a very strange comment, you know, but then the opposite is.
Speaker B:I've never met anyone in India who said that.
Speaker B:But, you know, I've got relatives in the foreign service there who was saying, you know, the Brits still act like it was 20th, like it was 50 years ago.
Speaker B:And actually they need to learn that, you know, they're the demanders now.
Speaker A:So, you know, demanders means that the, the.
Speaker B:Well, you know, India is going to be one of the world's biggest economies.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:It's going to be one of the world's most powerful countries.
Speaker B:I mean, if you think ahead just in pure population terms, it's perfectly plausible that in 50 years time, the Olympic Games is basically a battle between India and China.
Speaker B:You know, they've got so many people and those are.
Speaker B:So we need to start thinking about how the world is changing, figuring out how to maximize our influence in a world that is changing, figuring out what strengths we have.
Speaker B:I think you're absolutely right.
Speaker B:Being an open trading economy is one of our strengths.
Speaker B:Which is why, for instance, we have refused to go down the road that the Europeans and the Americans have gone down in terms of sticking tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's just, well, it's why you have the Department of Trade around the world trying to get people to come here and do business.
Speaker A:And some people, people say we're bringing competitors over.
Speaker A:It's like, no, that's always been the British thing.
Speaker A:Free trade.
Speaker A:Free trade.
Speaker A:You know, we're only a little country that we're, we're the shop.
Speaker A:You know, let's just pass it all through.
Speaker A:I mean, you know, it's interesting too.
Speaker A:I've seen, you know, because I've just seen Colorado, I'm involved a bit in Colorado, Colorado in the uk selling in.
Speaker A:It is signing an mou.
Speaker A:And you know, there's this sort of second tier approach politically to say, okay, we can't do a trade deal with America, let's do sort of memorandum of understanding.
Speaker A:But I'm not sure what value these things really hold.
Speaker A:Very little, very little.
Speaker A:It's a lot of sort of glad handing to the five years to sign the damn thing.
Speaker B:Well, you know, it's fine if you want to say, well, you know, this might be not binding, but it'd be really good if we made a bit of an effort to.
Speaker B:That's fine.
Speaker B:You know, it's like twinning, isn't it?
Speaker B:When towns twin.
Speaker B:It's on the surface it's like, so what?
Speaker B:But actually if you have an active mayor who says, you know, we're twin with that place, let's find some money to fund a school exchange.
Speaker B:You know, if you act on it, that's fine, but I mean, just signing it by rights, offers.
Speaker A:Yeah, well, I'm always amused.
Speaker A:Slough, which is where.
Speaker A:Where I have a lot of my life that is actually twinned with another town.
Speaker A:I always wondered, one of us wondered how they managed that.
Speaker A:I think it's a town in France or something.
Speaker A:Managed to twin with Slough, which must have been an interesting.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:I mean, Oxford, where I live, is twinned with about six places.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Nice places.
Speaker A:Lots of places, you know.
Speaker A:Right, let's bow down.
Speaker A:My chat with an on to five key takeaways.
Speaker A:Number one, Britain's identity crisis isn't just about Brexit.
Speaker A:Sure, Brexit shook things up, but the real wild card is the US.
Speaker A:With the UK's political future up in the air, we really are left wondering where we stand on the world stage.
Speaker A:Number two, Trump versus Starmer.
Speaker A:A true leadership clash.
Speaker A:While the UK government moves painfully slow and cautiously, Trump's thriving on shock moves.
Speaker A:With him back in, expect seismic shifts in global politics.
Speaker A:Politics.
Speaker A:Number three, the US props up global stability far more than we realize.
Speaker A:From security to humanitarian aid, America's role has been crucial.
Speaker A:If it steps back, the world will definitely feel it.
Speaker A:Just look at the chaos caused when Trump cut military aid to Ukraine.
Speaker A:Number four, immigration isn't just rising, it's changing.
Speaker A:Post Brexit, net migration is at a record high, but the source has shifted.
Speaker A:We're seeing fewer Europeans come in and more arrivals from Western Africa and India.
Speaker A:Number five, the buccaneering Brexit dream, Not so much.
Speaker A:Although the UK hoped and dreamed for a global trade boom, life's harsh reality had other plans.
Speaker A:Covid war and rising protectionism has made things a lot tougher.
Speaker A:Now it's about how well the UK rolls with the punches, gets back on its feet and stays there.
Speaker A:You obviously there trying to get messages out.
Speaker A:Who are you trying to get these messages out?
Speaker A:Is it to the.
Speaker A:You said it's to the sort of.
Speaker A:To make it understandable, you know, layman's language, you know, with everything being sound bites and no one, no one having any time to listen or understand anything anymore.
Speaker A:And frankly, the knowledge of general people is just declining as everything's just in Google and, you know, you go to a shop, nobody knows about anything anymore.
Speaker A:I mean, it's just something very strange going on with our level of knowledge anyway.
Speaker A:But who you trying to get to?
Speaker A:Are you trying to produce stuff that the general public are going to look at or is it, yeah, the general.
Speaker B:Yeah, we like doing, you know, know we're not massive, we're not like a massive national newspaper.
Speaker B:We don't have that sort of readership.
Speaker B:But yeah, we want normal people to be able to read our stuff.
Speaker B:We do a lot of.
Speaker B:We try and communicate with ordinary people via the media.
Speaker A:And so you're trying to provide a source of information outside of Instagram and tick tock one minute sound bites like you want to go, we can do that.
Speaker B:I mean, we do tick tock videos, but, right, what we do is based on academic research.
Speaker B:So broadly, broadly, it's meant to be reliable and impartial.
Speaker B:And actually there isn't much reliable impartial information about these days.
Speaker B:And one of the reasons why people listen to us during the whole Brexit saga, I mean, I remember that someone said to me once, I think it was about the second time I did Question Time, someone was chatting to someone afterwards and they said, the reason we listen to you is we don't know what you're going to say.
Speaker B:Whereas, you know, in the Brexit debate, you have a lever, you know exactly what they're going to say, you have a remainder, you know exactly what they're going to say.
Speaker B:And actually being the person who says, actually the evidence is a bit different.
Speaker A:The data is always fascinating, isn't it?
Speaker A:We all have these feelings, isn't it?
Speaker A:And we've got so many biases.
Speaker A:You know, it's this sort of, you know.
Speaker B:And you know, we've got biases too.
Speaker B:I mean, you can never be wholly objective or impartial because your priors are always there.
Speaker B:But we try.
Speaker B:That's why academics spend so much time thinking about methodology.
Speaker B:It's about how you get to good answers without being swayed by your bias.
Speaker A:Surely AI is a huge help for you now, without its emotion to say, go read all of this, give me your.
Speaker B:Well, hey, I'm too old for a AI.
Speaker B:AI for me is the equivalent of the sort of remote control for my mother.
Speaker B:This is like a step too far.
Speaker B:I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna learn it, you know.
Speaker B:But you know what the warning is, you know, with that Chinese AI, when people have gone on there, deep sea, cool, deep sea, people have gone in and put Tiananmen Square.
Speaker B:And it's like, Tiananmen Square is a beautiful square in the center of China.
Speaker B:What are you asking about?
Speaker B:And it's kind of like that's a.
Speaker A:View of, well, weirdly, I went to China as a young boy and it was the year after Tiananmen Square Square, and we stayed in the hotel that was on one of the corners.
Speaker A:But I remember my dad asking them about Tiananmen Square.
Speaker A:And it was such a weird conversation with the hotel.
Speaker A:And they were saying, oh, the incident that happened last, well, you know, you're there as tourists.
Speaker A:It was a communist country.
Speaker A:But I think it was my mum, because that's my mum.
Speaker A:She's always, you know, she's got the Irish gene.
Speaker A:She can't help, like, wanting to have a bit of a chat about it.
Speaker A:And, yeah, no one would talk about it, obviously.
Speaker A:And then they found that very peculiar.
Speaker A:So she being her.
Speaker A:She kept pushing a little bit, you know, and then it was sort of like someone came along and I still remember as a little boy and was sort of.
Speaker A:We were sort of told, you know, no, nothing happened here, madam, I think it would be best if you carry.
Speaker A:We sort of.
Speaker A:Sort of shut the fuck up and piss off, you know, politely.
Speaker A:But I always remember that as a moment of sort of like, yeah, he was my mum.
Speaker A:Because my dad's like, what the hell are you doing?
Speaker B:But they say this and they're like, you know, again, AI has the biases of its creators and of the sources it uses.
Speaker B:And, you know, there's.
Speaker B:People have found gender bias, race bias in the way these things are set up.
Speaker B:So, yeah, I'm sure they will be useful tools whether I.
Speaker B:I feel about AI a bit like I feel about auto drive in a car.
Speaker B:You know, driverless cars, all in for auto drive.
Speaker B:I like the principle, I like the idea.
Speaker B:But would I sit in the back seat and fall asleep while being driven by a car?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:Would I help?
Speaker A:Oh, I'm bang up for that sort of thing.
Speaker B:I mean, if I could be persuaded it was safe.
Speaker B:Yeah, but I'm a long way from that now.
Speaker A:Okay, so let's do a quick fire round.
Speaker A:This is where we're gonna ask you a list of questions, get to know you a little better, answer as quickly as possible.
Speaker A:Music.
Speaker A:You should know the answers.
Speaker A:What was your first job?
Speaker B:Pee picking.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:Pee picking.
Speaker A:What is that?
Speaker B:Pick peas.
Speaker A:Oh, pee picking.
Speaker B:Pee picking.
Speaker B:I thought I said that quite clearly.
Speaker A:I know, I'm sure you did.
Speaker A:It said together as a word, it sounds like a one word.
Speaker B:Did it in the school holidays.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, no, I.
Speaker A:I feel your pain.
Speaker A:What was your worst job?
Speaker B:Pee picking.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Got my knees.
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker A:Favorite subject project at school?
Speaker B:History.
Speaker A:History.
Speaker A:Very cool.
Speaker A:What's your special skill?
Speaker B:Sleeping.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker B:Brilliant sleeper.
Speaker B:I could sleep anywhere, anytime.
Speaker A:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:Any form of transport, even in bright Lights.
Speaker B:I have slept on transatlantic flights the whole way and woken up, but my wife's there with her eyes wide open in exactly the same position as when we took off, hating my guts because she can't.
Speaker B:I mean, I can just sleep.
Speaker A:Oh, and you love to sleep.
Speaker A:You must.
Speaker B:I'm sorry.
Speaker B:So good at it.
Speaker A:That's amazing.
Speaker A:What did you want to be when you grew up?
Speaker B:Barrister, I think, for some of my time.
Speaker A:And what did your parents want you to be?
Speaker B:My parents were both doctors, but they never sort of pushed me.
Speaker B:I mean, they put me off unwittingly being a doctor.
Speaker B:Because when I was a kid, like in the 70s, the British Medical Journal used to have like a cover photo, but because it was a British Medical Journal, it was a cover photo of like a rotten liver or something.
Speaker B:And this used to arrive on our breakfast table and I used to be like.
Speaker A:It still does.
Speaker A:My wife gets right.
Speaker B:So, I mean, that just put me off.
Speaker B:I mean, I just couldn't.
Speaker B:I couldn't stomach it.
Speaker A:They do these strange illustrations.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker A:What's your go to karaoke song?
Speaker B:Bloody hell.
Speaker B:I tell you, the one I did with an old mate of mine when we were sort of graduate students was we did a very moving rendition of Ebony and Ivory Was white.
Speaker B:Yeah, we cleared the room.
Speaker B:There's a lot of high notes in Ebony and Ivory, as it turns out, which is a nightmare.
Speaker A:Yeah, I bet there is.
Speaker A:Who did it originally?
Speaker B:I can't think Bob MARLEY and Paul McCartney was it.
Speaker A:They probably did.
Speaker B:Not Bob Marley, it was a Stevie Wonder and Paul Mc.
Speaker A:Yeah, it would have been Office dogs.
Speaker A:Business or bullshit.
Speaker B:I don't even understand that question.
Speaker A:Well, do you think office dog.
Speaker A:Dog is a good idea?
Speaker B:A good idea?
Speaker B:I used to take my.
Speaker B:Like, I've had a couple of dogs and I used to take them both to work with me.
Speaker A:Brilliant.
Speaker A:Have you ever been fired?
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:Well done, actually.
Speaker B:Oh, no, I haven't.
Speaker A:No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Speaker B:What was that?
Speaker B:Actually?
Speaker B:I mean, it's, it's.
Speaker B:It's a sad story of.
Speaker B:I mean, it's, it's.
Speaker A:It's dreadful.
Speaker B:It's a dreadful story, this.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:It's like when I was about 18, I got a Christmas holiday job working in a off license in the Central Wakefield and it was Christmas Eve.
Speaker B:Said everyone's drunk on Christmas.
Speaker B:It's like.
Speaker B:It's like a riot.
Speaker B:You imagine it's the early 80s, there's a minor strike, everyone was tanked up and violent.
Speaker B:Anyway, so the manager says to Me, because he was a nightmare.
Speaker B:Just go outside and make sure you don't let any of those gangs in.
Speaker B:And I was like, what?
Speaker B:He said, yeah, you stand outside.
Speaker B:So I went and stood outside the shop, like, quavering while these drunks came past and shouted abuse at me.
Speaker B:And then after about 10 minutes, I turned around and the keys had gone from the door.
Speaker B:I had the keys in the door and the thing locked and the keys.
Speaker B:And I thought, oh, God.
Speaker B:So I sort of went back in and I went over to the manager and I said, I'm really sorry.
Speaker B:And he burst out laughing.
Speaker B:I said, what?
Speaker B:And he said, you have to edit this for language.
Speaker B:Oh.
Speaker B:The butcher next door just brought these back in because he said, there's some bloke out there who's nicking your keys.
Speaker B:And I thought he was gonna.
Speaker B:I mean.
Speaker B:And basically we parted ways.
Speaker B:Then I wasn't exactly.
Speaker B:Exactly sacked.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But, you know.
Speaker A:But you drew the line.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:What's your vice on an.
Speaker B:Oh, God, I still miss smoking.
Speaker A:Smoker, are you?
Speaker B:Yeah, I was a smoker.
Speaker B:I've stopped for about 10 years now.
Speaker B:But, my God, when I smell it, I miss it.
Speaker B:I'd say Malbec is my current voice.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:Good choice.
Speaker A:Yeah, Very nice.
Speaker A:Nice.
Speaker A:Argentinian.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Not the French stuff.
Speaker A:Anand, you've been brilliant.
Speaker A:Thank you so much for your time.
Speaker A:Thank you for doing this today.
Speaker A:If people want to find out more about you or anything, I guess they just Google you.
Speaker A:Is there.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Anywhere to direct them?
Speaker B:Twitter or Blue Sky?
Speaker B:You can find me talking about football and cricket.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Brilliant.
Speaker A:That your.
Speaker A:Your passions?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:And are you more of a.
Speaker A:What would be your favorite sport and favorite team will be.
Speaker B:Well, you don't need a favorite sporty.
Speaker B:There's a summer sport and there's a winter sport.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker B:So cricket.
Speaker B:Yorkshire and India.
Speaker B:And football.
Speaker B:Leeds United, obviously.
Speaker B:Top of the league.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Love it.
Speaker B:Five points clear at the top.
Speaker A:That has been this week's episode of Business Without.
Speaker A:Thank you, Arnan.
Speaker B:Thank you, D.
Speaker B:My absolute pleasure.
Speaker A:And we will be doing the same thing next Wednesday.
Speaker A:Thank you.
Speaker A:Take care.
Speaker A:Ciao.
